Selective bluffing on the flop..
by iceman5
There are many ways of mixing up and improving your NL game. Here is one play I added to my game quite a while ago and it has really improved my win rate. I call it "Stealing Small Pots".
When I first started playing NL (and for a long time afterwards), I only bet the flop when I had top pair. I wasn’t betting without top pair, no matter what the circumstances. If there were 1 or 2 limpers and I was holding KQ and the flop was A84, I was perfectly happy to just check. I had nothing. Why would I want to bet that flop? I’ll tell you why. I bet that flop now because I want to steal that small pot. Stealing a lot of these small pots that nobody else wants will significantly increase your win rate.
Of course, there is a time and place for everything and this is no exception. There are certain criteria that I look for before making this play. Normally, I like there to be 3-4 people in the pot. I also like for there to be one broadway (face) card and no obvious draws. If I get called, I don’t want to be tempted to bet again at the turn because I think the opponent maybe on a draw. I’ll give you a couple of examples of when this is a good play.
- I have AT and I limp after one other limper. Both blinds play. The flop is K75 with no flush draw. If it gets checked to me, I bet. When I say I bet, I mean that I bet the pot. If the pot is $8, I bet $8. Its doubtful that anyone has a king or they would’ve bet already before the action got to me. If I get called, in most cases, I’m done with the hand.
- I limp in MP with JTs. The button limps and the BB checks. The flop comes A62. If the BB checks, I will bet the pot most times here. If the button doesn’t have an ace, he’s not going to call and I steal another small pot with nothing.
There are lots of other combinations of hands and flops where the same play will work. Remember that you have to bet the pot here. If you bet $2 into an $8,you’re just looking to get check raised by someone who probably has nothing themselves, but knows you have nothing either. Since you are risking $8 to win $8, this play only has to be successful 50% of the time for you to break even. Believe me, if you pick the right times to make this play, it will be successful 75% of the time or more.
This play will also work in reverse. If you are the BB and the flop looks like it would hit a random BB type hand, you can fire out a pot sized bet and take it down a majority of times.
Example
You are in the BB with AT. The flop comes 853. If there is only 2 other limpers in the pot, I will fire out a pot bet. You would be surprised how often this bet takes down the pot. Of course, if someone calls, most of the time you will have to surrender unless a ten or ace hits the turn.
If you want to give this a try, here is what I suggest. This is what I did for several months. Keep a little tally sheet beside your computer and keep track of all these bets.
I tracked how many times I made a "steal bet", how often it worked, and the total results of these bets. If I bet $8 and took down the $8.60 pot then I got credited with +$8.60. If I bet $6 and either got called and I check/folded the turn, or I got raised and folded the flop, then I marked -$6.
Remember that only hands where you would normally check it around count for these calculations. Also, if you bet with nothing, but then pick up something at the turn that makes you continue with the hand, that doesn’t count either. If you bet a flush draw or a gutshot draw, that doesn’t count. You only get to count hands where you are truly betting with nothing.
I stopped tracking this after 2 months when I was satisfied with my results. I was successful approximately 74% of the time and the total amount of money I won with these hands accounted for about 15% of my total winnings. This was pure profit with hands that I used to just check until someone else bet in which case I folded. Nowadays I steal these pots that nobody else wants.
When you get really good at identifying these opportunities, you can start limping in when you are in LP with all kinds of hands for the sole purpose of stealing the pot if nobody bets. You’ll get check raised once in a while when you bet so much, but since you are never showing your cards down, they don’t know you are betting with nothing. Most NL players will not check raise you without a real hand, so you can fold to the check raise and just move on to the next hand.
With all this betting, you will also get unmeasureable extra action on your real hands, but that is a whole separate topic.
--iceman5
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